Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 9.854616 12.170373 14.769250 17.881301 21.485027 25.505278 30.306852
2025-12-28 6.725510 9.695162 13.420167 18.343795 24.581547 32.119187 41.804927
2026-01-04 4.937319 8.088313 12.409117 18.566205 26.893573 37.533983 51.898224
2026-01-11 3.821098 7.015565 11.747696 18.926267 29.158591 42.814596 61.954339
2026-01-18 3.081314 6.280961 11.359636 19.491444 31.604132 48.355702 72.551271
2026-01-25 2.349853 5.354899 10.479547 19.142823 32.615300 51.894035 80.540032
2026-02-01 1.893222 4.783075 10.040665 19.360519 34.396216 56.534300 90.205222
2026-02-08 1.460006 4.127899 9.327170 19.005819 35.209072 59.749410 97.933886
2026-02-15 1.101934 3.513729 8.561969 18.434253 35.574769 62.253233 104.676691
2026-02-22 0.931834 3.274910 8.463071 18.999304 37.799549 67.658008 115.898522
2026-03-01 0.724475 2.868940 7.947270 18.723550 38.561806 70.793448 123.798771
2026-03-08 0.582322 2.584411 7.630348 18.771037 39.855148 74.798393 133.150289
2026-03-15 0.402712 2.113784 6.825333 17.811984 39.394874 76.122011 138.701017
2026-03-22 0.329282 1.958051 6.736570 18.310861 41.633297 82.030672 151.791268
2026-03-29 0.259580 1.774636 6.534821 18.535584 43.362275 87.153123 163.808940
2026-04-05 0.208085 1.631821 6.405727 18.895364 45.359991 92.809151 176.883530
2026-04-12 0.171512 1.531573 6.371419 19.459834 47.784454 99.297095 191.535804
2026-04-19 0.123067 1.325545 5.971952 19.111657 48.355172 102.543772 200.912967
2026-04-26 0.095434 1.209425 5.817895 19.329076 50.075414 107.892004 213.973682
2026-05-03 0.066562 1.045405 5.457048 18.974828 50.570393 111.032455 223.377009
2026-05-10 0.043481 0.881624 5.039184 18.403995 50.545924 113.197613 231.156246
2026-05-17 0.035017 0.835957 5.046100 18.968322 53.010607 120.074301 247.295838
2026-05-24 0.023346 0.726183 4.763685 18.692921 53.596768 123.434324 257.380855